Why Peter Schiff Isn’t a Serious Economist

“He’s predicted twenty of the last four recessions.”

That was a quote from a libertarian economist who I have a lot of respect for; however I haven’t asked if he’d like to be quoted on this or not so he will remain nameless.

I was at a conference about a year ago; speaking to an economist I have a pretty heavy admiration for. He’s a hardcore libertarian, and from careful research he said something very rare for a libertarian today: he said, “The future of the economy does look good, but with some problems that could prevent future growth” and I thought, “Yes!”

I was so happy that a libertarian economist finally threw away this theory of “the next collapse”; a theory which has become, at this point, an almost Alex Jones level conspiracy (in which many libertarians are saying “any day now the market will crash!” almost looking forward to it).

The man we spoke about was none other than the poster child for “collapse” rhetoric, Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital. Peter Schiff, the man who has predicted twenty of the last four recessions.

What I like about Peter Schiff

I think he is a very commanding speaker with an ability to explain economics to people well and talk about issues. He makes Ron Paul, Gary Johnson & Rand Paul look like complete morons.

At this point, he very well could be the best pick for the LP nomination for president in 2020, if no one better runs.

Unless we get Justin Amash, Bill Weld, Andrew Napolitano or Mark Cuban willing to jump in, I’ll take the financial entrepreneur worth $70 million who goes on national TV regularly to talk about the future of the economy.

I’ll certainly take it over over a fight between Austin Petersen, Adam Kokesh, and Larry Sharpe – fighting for Russia Today interviews and talking about whose blog discussing the NAP is the best.

I was a big supporter of Peter Schiff 2010 where he ran as a Republican for US Senate.

I donated about $200 to him and felt he was the most important man to elect in 2010. I preferred him over Rand Paul and still would prefer him in the senate over Rand, because he is a principled libertarian and just more knowledgeable than most.

I like how he is just a blunt freaking man. If he did run in 2020, and by some miracle made the debates, he would be the single best libertarian alive today to challenge Donald Trump on the issues. He’d have no shot in hell at winning, but it’d be a debate to remember, where he’d kick ass.

However, I buy stocks. I look at trading every single day. I read a lot on economics. And I’m just going to say, I take Peter Schiff’s advice on the economy as seriously as I take Trump’s kids explaining why they support war with Syria.

My Problem with Peter Schiff

My problem with Peter Schiff is quite simple. He has never not said the economy is about to collapse, and just runs with this notion that he was the lone economist predicting the recession, time and time again, which is a proven lie. So let’s prove why this is false.

First off, he says he predicted the recession of 2008. He says he was the man getting on TV saying there’s a housing bubble that’s going to burst and people laughed at him. He was this lone warrior.

Let me explain; millions of people, globally, called the housing market bubble for years. We can even go back to Jib Jab videos from 2005 talking about how the housing bubble is about to burst. That is nothing unique at all.

There recently was a very popular and shockingly real movie called the Big Short. It talked about a handful of guys (who were in actuality many, many, guys) who expected a recession to happen from the housing bubble and made millions and millions of dollars off of it.

There’s a decent amount of evidence to show that Peter Schiff’s fund didn’t really profit as much, off of the recession, as many other firms which bet against housing.

It also looks like he, and other libertarian minded fund managers, bet against the economy over just housing which short term had gains, but longer term didn’t.

There are interviews with Peter Schiff (since about 2003) where he calls out the housing bubble; we just never get specifics on it. We never get dates. He sees it happening, but we never get details, or numbers. We never really get anything other than this conspiracy-theory like idea that the economy will collapse. It’s handled in such a vague way; it could be 2004, 2008 or 2020 – It’s just not credible.

After 2008 and after his senate run, Schiff became the man to never shut up about how he predicted the recession, but this is a trend.

In the last few years I’ve watched the Schiff podcast saying gold might double again.

He’s said student loans are going to tank the economy. He’s said we would have a collapse before the 2016 election. He says the housing bubble is still about to collapse.

Schiff’s podcast also said credit cards are going to collapse the economy this year, but so far all I’ve seen is…nothing.

There have been no collapses and no accurate predictions for almost seven years. However, scaring a bunch of young libertarians and getting them to buy gold off of his website seems to be the plan.

It’s just bizarre. It’s a clear case of a guy who never claims the positive, but will run the story of the negative and eventually be right. It’s almost like a psychic on the streets of Manhattan, giving very generic and obvious prediction about someone and convincing them they are right, these things will happen. That’s what Schiff does when he speaks about the economy.

Interviewer: “Where’s the economy heading Peter?”

Schiff: “We are absolutely doomed. The debt is going to make it another ‘08. I was right before, so bail now.”

Interviewer: “Wow! When will this happen?”

Schiff: “It’s hard to tell. The government messed up things, but the longer it takes the worse it will be!”

Interviewer: “What can we do to stop it?”

Schiff: “My website sells gold…”

… And that’s all it is.

Peter Schiff has a place in the economic talks happening, but for the love of God, don’t put your paycheck into his podcast suggestions.