Why I Think Trump Will Win

The 2020 elections are nearly upon us, and Biden by all accounts seems to be the likely winner. I understand why he theoretically should win, but I cannot shake the feeling victory will actually go to Trump. I base this on several reasons. I write this article having the courage of my convictions to at least venture a more detailed reason about why I believe Trump will win rather than the simple “Biden will win because orange man bad”, or even the converse of “Trump will win because crazy blue man and lady bad”.

A recent Gallup poll found that 56% of respondents said they were better off today (in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic) than they were four years ago. 32% said they were worse off. A binary logic would dictate that this 56% would theoretically vote for Trump, but the respondents could have their own beliefs about why they are better off now than four years ago that have nothing or little to do with Trump.

Trump is not shy in showing his character, which many find repulsive. This is important because voters in 2016 knew who Trump was when they voted for him. Ben Shapiro has often noted that Trump must be judged on two metrics, rhetoric and policy. On rhetoric Trump is not well spoken and many times repulsive. On policy, he is substantially better and more committed, and it is policy that truly matters. On policy, he has kept most of his 2016 campaign promises.

This reveals two things to consider for his success prospects. First, Trump is no more likeable in 2020 than in 2016, but Trump was elected in 2016 on a hope and a prayer by many that he would honor his promises. Second, Trump established a track record by keeping most of his promises, including the most controversial ones, which bore fruit in the end.  It should logically follow that if a substantial portion of Trump voters were in some way reluctant in 2016 when they voted in a vacuum of information regarding his integrity on policy, why would they be any more reluctant in 2020 now that they have a track record by which to judge? I would fully expect these people to be less reluctant to vote for him a second time round, even if they still dislike his character.

Trump is also hated, and those that vote for him are demonized as everything wrong with America. With this in mind, how trustworthy are the polls actually? If Trump-inclined voters are asked who they intend to vote for in the toxic political climate so prevalent in the USA, I am very reluctant to believe they would give an honest answer. As mentioned above, many voters that support Trump are understandably reluctant to do so. This can be contrasted with the more upfront and proud Trump supporters who do not fear the toxic political climate. Unfortunately, there is no way to truly test this hypothesis of mine before votes are cast and counted.

Trump’s first debate performance was abysmally atrocious and poor. Biden was not much better, but Trump hardly gave Biden the chance to show exactly how poor Biden was. The third and final debate was a different story entirely. Trump was prepared, mostly correct on substantial issues, and avoided his characteristic hyperbole. After watching the debate, I commented that Trump appeared a very different person from what I knew him to be. I surmised his recent COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment had something to do with it. The result of this being he was seemingly much less erratic and more in control of himself than usual. Overall, I thought Trump had won a resounding victory in the third debate due to Biden’s constant flip-flopping and self-contradictions while on stage (just like his entire political career).

Trump also understands the pain of the lockdowns that many people are feeling or have felt. Biden does not and has spent most of the campaign sheltering away from the realities on the ground. If Americans have noticed this (I do not see why they would not), it should follow that they want to get back to work more than wanting a second stimulus cheque. Similarly, Biden has been wrong on every major foreign policy issue of his political life, whereas Trump has been correct (moving the embassy did not cause WWIII, nor did flirting with North Korea to build rapport for the future, and several Arab nations have formalized peace and diplomatic relations with Israel). Biden also has the 1994 crime bill chalice on his neck, which he until recently stood by quite proudly having written most of it.

Finally, it is nothing short of glaringly obvious that Biden is a mere fig leaf for a Harris presidency. At 77 years old, Biden will become the oldest president since Trump, who is 74 years old. While three years is not much of a difference, Trump clearly has his wits about him at the worst and most chaotic times, whereas Biden struggles to remember names, places, dates, and even common words on a near daily basis. The energy difference of the two is also staggering, despite Trump’s obese figure. If Biden does not peg off due to natural causes or is rendered mentally incapacitated in the next four years, this results in a Kamala Harris presidency.

Personally, I find Harris utterly reprehensible and unprincipled. What more evidence is needed when she accused Biden of sexual assault on a debate stage, and then gleefully accepted his offer for vice-president? When confronted about it, she laughed and brushed it off as never serious because it was made for the purposes of a debate. Clinton never scared me, but Harris genuinely does. I do not think this unbridled hypocrisy escapes most Americans, as much as much of the world likes to mock them for all sorts of stupidity and arrogance, because I recognize that they know what is important to their interests.

As the election nears, polls have also been narrowing depending on which polling agency you consider. However long it takes to count the votes, Biden may well win, even resoundingly. The converse may also be true of Trump.