I am going to take a moment to step away from my common practice of libertarian ideological promotion, “taxation is theft” chanting, and Rothbard worshiping to get into some good old fashion nerdy political junkie discussions.
Will it be a discussion on real issues such as policy or local races? No, silly! It’s another talk on who the next president is going to be, and my money is on Democrat Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.
Before saying why I see Gabbard as the strongest candidate, let’s just review the senior citizens home known as the 2020 Democrat field.
– Joe Biden will be unlikely to run, he’s very old and has never been good at campaigning to begin with.
– Liz Warren is holding the issue that she’s going to become the Rand Paul of 2020. She will come in with a strong following, but decisions to be more moderate and reach the larger base will haunt her. There are also some clear issues already with her record in the senate where some hard leftist have labelled her as a phony.
– Cory Booker will get treated as a mixture of Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio. An establishment pick that people find to be overly polished, not genuine, and while he will never sink below the top 3-5, his chance of getting the front spot is going to be tough, with the hard left going against him and tough competition for the moderates.
– Andrew Cuomo will be the Jeb Bush of 2020, he will win the war of getting the gold, but will find that it doesn’t buy him much love outside of K street.
There are Democrats who will possibly run, but that nobody will give a shit about, like: Martin O’Malley, Kamala Harris, Jon Bel Edwards, Kirsten Gilibrand, Caroline Kennedy, Tim Kaine, etc.
Then there are people who would change the game, but have a low chance of actually running: Oprah Winfrey (we are doomed), Mark Cuban (I’d consider it), Howard Schultz (another billionaire), Bill Weld (unlikely, but I’d back him in the Democratic Party), Jesse Ventura (the greatest thing to happen to SNL since Trump if he makes the Democratic debates).
But while that list is long, let me say why the young and beautiful veteran from Hawaii will likely run, likely win the nomination, and likely beat Donald Trump.
Why she will win the nomination
For that, let’s make this a top five.
5. Everyone in the Democratic Party knows her
Bernie Sanders lost due to relationships. The fact is, outside of Ben & Jerry’s Vermont offices, he had no contacts with big money, not many members of the house knew him well, and even the senate never formally worked with him, due to him having the independent registration. Gabbard was vice chair of the DNC and unlike Bernie has all the billionaires, senators, governors etc. in her phone book already. They know who she is and she knows them.
4. White girl Buddhist
Gabbard, if elected, would be the first Hindu president in American history. The left has this culture where many women get classified as “White girl Buddhist” and on that perspective alone, she could gain some interest from that community of people, due to her ethnic origins, and being a Hindu who is also Native American – real Native American, unlike Liz Warren. This gets her some classic liberal street cred.
3. She’s pro-gun
Believe it or not, a lot of Democrats actually do like guns. Outside of California, and some core states, there’s a spree of Democrats who want free healthcare, legal marijuana, and the power to be packing.
2. She’s the youngest Democrat
If Gabbard runs, she will be, by far, the youngest candidate in the Democratic field. At the age of 39, she would be the youngest president – if elected. AS we’ve seen with JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama, there’s just this fact that the youngest person tends to hold an advantage in the Democratic Party. Gabbard being over three decades the junior of Biden and Warren, while also almost 15 years younger than Booker, holds this advantage. The fact she is extremely attractive also doesn’t hurt.
1. She endorsed Bernie
In an age of NowThis, US Uncut, Occupy Democrats and so on, this is all it’ll take: a video showing Tulsi Gabbard, with her basic resume and one line “Elizabeth Warren refused to endorse Bernie Sanders. Tulsi Gabbard resigned as vice chairwoman of the DNC to endorse and fight for Bernie.”
Do that, and watch it get 30 million views, and in a day, she’ll be the most beloved person on the far left, and Liz Warren becomes yesterday’s socialist. Gabbard betting on Bernie in the 2016 primary was the strongest pick she’s made.
Why she will fire Donald
5. She can claim to be a change
If Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, it’s a battle between Barack Obama and Donald Trump. When Trump defeated Hillary, he partially defeated Obama. Biden won’t reflect a spirit of change and new management. Gabbard being not formally attached to any administration can get that outsider edge which a Donald Trump, who’s failed many of his promises, can’t fill.
4. She is willing to cross aisles
Tulsi Gabbard made national headlines with a rumour she was in consideration for Secretary of State. She also was the second Democrat in America to have a real meeting with Donald Trump after he won. That story and method of not going after Trump as a racist or Russian spy is going to be an edge in swaying other supporters.
3. She’s pro-gun
A lot of people are single issue voters who tend to make their issue the dumbest issue. If Hillary Clinton was pro second amendment, she’d have defeated Donald Trump. She didn’t, but Gabbard holds this clear edge.
2. She’s economically vague, but Bernie appealing
The reality to winning in politics is claim to have answers, but never have supporters actually know what those answers are. Bernie Sanders had bat-shit ridiculous ideas. He did a debate on healthcare and Ted Cruz cut him to shreds, that’s just a sign of his nonsense.
With Bernie, everything on economics was just the land of make believe. Because Gabbard endorsed Bernie, and has some hard-left stances, she already owns the Bernie people. She can keep them excited and make promises, for example single payer light or free college, and still have it appeal to that base. Another truth is that she can be like Donald Trump and say she wants something like single payer, but word it to be more of an effort over a clear promise.
Gabbard can, unlike Bernie, not be bat-shit crazy on economics.
1. She’s a veteran and gets foreign policy.
If Gabbard was elected, she’d be the first veteran since H.W. to take office, and can actually poise herself on real middle eastern policy talks where she has front line experience from the Iraq war. Being able to talk about that experience and drive it to her very libertarian foreign policy views, she has a good shot.
The final question: Would I vote for her?
In 2012, I supported Gary Johnson in the Republican primary, and later backed Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman after Gary left that race. I voted for Gary Johnson as a New Yorker. While I wasn’t a fan of Romney, I asked friends in swing states, who were backing Johnson, to vote trade for Romney.
In the Trump and Clinton wars, I was proud to say Clinton was the lesser of the evils, and I still stand by that. I did vote for Gary Johnson, but if I lived in a swing state, I would have voted for Clinton. I’m open to play nice with the left.
However, I’d probably not vote for Tulsi Gabbard.
Gabbards economic views currently strike me as being too far to the left. I could see her being worse than Trump.
In the Democratic primary of 2016, I said I’d support Clinton over Trump, but I’d support Trump over Bernie. However, Gabbard has had a career of being very open, trustworthy and having a genuine concern for policy over her own career. So, unlike Hillary Clinton, I’d say I think Gabbard deserves some respect as a candidate.
I didn’t get to have my first or second picks for president in 2012 or 2016, and I doubt I’ll get that with 2020. So, my money is on President Gabbard.
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