Another decade has come and gone. As we say so long to the 2010s, with all the ice bucket challenges, debates over the colour of a dress, and who could forget planking, we also saw events that changed the foundation of our world. We saw the rise of right-wing populism with a consistent defeat of left-wing populism. Socialism collapsed in Venezuela. Cryptocurrency had a sharp rise, giving the promise of emancipation from central banking. Poverty continued in a rapid decline.
As we head into the next decade we can expect the times to continue to change. With boldness and risk to my reputation, I’ll give my predictions for the next decade.
With EVs currently growing at 50%-60%, the forecast is to see market saturation by the middle of the next decade. There are obvious ramifications for the fossil fuel industry. With decreased demand, jurisdictions that rely on a high price of oil to make extraction profitable such as Alberta could face significant economic decline.
Additionally, software developments are making self-driving more of a reality. Kids born in the late 2010s likely won’t have to learn to drive. There are serious job security questions for truckers, taxi and bus drivers. There will no doubt be seismic shifts within the insurance industry. Transportation in 2030 will be radically different from the way it’s done today.
With Amazon and Alibaba gaining market shares every day, retail is transforming. It may not happen over the next decade, with Walmart and Costco consistently pushing up their profits (largely due to online shopping having destroyed Walmart and Costco’s competitors).
Another component of the shopping mall is the movie theatre. With streaming services becoming more aggressive there could be implications for the cinema. This being said, I made this same prediction last decade and of the 20 highest-grossing movies of all time, 18 were produced in the 2010s. The evidence suggests I’m wrong about the decline of the theatre, but the evidence suggested Michael Bury was wrong to short the housing market when it continued its rise in 2006.
The shopping mall is also famous for cell phone booths on every corner. At my local shopping center, within a five-minute walk, I can get the same phone from the same provider in five different locations. It’s not strictly necessary. If providers find a way to transition to online shopping, the shopping mall will look different.
With Facetime, Skype, Facebook voice and video calling, magicJack, Viber, Whatsapp, and Google Voice, wifi calling is rapidly approaching quality that can usurp traditional cell service. If any one of these gained market dominance it would cause a cascading effect. Since this is an article of predictions, I’ll put myself out there and claim Facebook is likely going to be the company that replaces the talk portion of your cell service. Too many people already have the service compared to Facebook’s competitors.
Libertarians famously sounded the alarm on recession fears in the 2010s as a result of quantitative easing. We were wrong about it. As we warned of imminent hyperinflation, the stock market over the last decade jumped from $10,500 to $28,400 (I’m writing hours before the closing bell on New Year’s Eve, so if something drastic happens, my apologies).
To combat economic calamity, the 2010s are characterized by unparalleled lows in interest rates. Borrowing has been high. We’re not at unprecedented levels of debt with rising interest rates. Bankruptcies are anticipated to rise in the west. If interest rates hit the levels they did in the 1980s, federal treasuries all over the Western world will be emptied.
Iran will Have a Counter-Revolution
The Middle East is characterized by a cold war between Iran (Shite) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni). Saudi Arabia’s government enjoys a high level of support from its populace, Iran cannot make the same claim.
This could be disrupted by another war, revitalizing patriotic sentiments in Iran. However, provided Trump adheres to his doctrine of avoiding absurd, pointless, wars, and history is allowed to take its course, Iran’s populace is on track to dispose of its government, fundamentally shifting geopolitics of the region.
Iran’s people have already blasphemed their government in the last round of protests – a point of no return, and no retreat. The region is going to undergo a fundamental change in the way politics is done.
There are a plethora of predictions that can be made. We know the world will change. It will be different in 2030 than it is today. The Times, they are a-changin’, and now more than ever. The world in the next ten years will look a lot different than it did ten years ago. How that plays out is uncertain, but now you have my best guess.
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